Wednesday, August 12, 2015

50 Packs Means What

It's been a while since statistics so it's nice to find someone doing this for me…



Out of 50 packs, about how many of the 130 cards should the average person get? And how much dust would 50 packs get?

TLDR: 93% of commons, 62% of rares, 21% of epics, 14% of legendaries and 1100 dust, equaling a total value of 18245 dust

Almost forgot to answer the original question from the title: 89 unique cards out of the 132.

I assumed that TGT has the exact same rarity distribution as GvG, plus 9 extra commons (1 for each class), which makes it: 49 commons, 37 rares, 26 epics and 20 legendaries. I also assumed that you don't care about golden cards, so you only keep golden cards if you don't have enough non-golden copies of the same card. Sadly, I don't have the time to properly analyze the data, so I just averaged it all together. (I could sort the runs and show some values for the top and bottom 10%, maybe in a separate post later.) So the average result is:
  • Commons: out of 49, you have both copies of 43 and a single copy of 5, that equals 93% (I'm sure that single card missing is the best common of the set)
  • Rares: out of 37, you have both copies of 17 and a single copy of 12, that means no copies of 8, equaling 62%
  • Epics: out of 26, you have both copies of 2, and a single copy of 7, no copies of 17, equaling 21%
  • Legendaries: 3 unique legendaries (duplicates have been auto-disenchanted), it was 2.8 on average, so it's 14%
  • Dust: from duplicates, you ended up with 1100 dust
  • Total value: 18245 dust, which equals 365 per pack. This is the crafting cost of all the cards summed up plus the dust from disenchanting. (This slightly differs from the sum of the previous values, because of the rounding errors.)
I hope the information was useful for you. I'll maybe do a proper analysis with confidence intervals and all the fancy statistics, if I have enought time for that, sometime later in a separate post.
Good luck actually opening your 50 packs! Cheers!

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